Florida apartments in 2026: the supply wave is over. Here's what the numbers say comes next.
For three years, Florida built apartments like it was getting paid by the crane. In 2026, the cranes went home. Deliveries in Orlando are down by half, insurance bills fell 40%, and rents have stopped falling. So why are cap rates sitting a whisker above Treasury bonds, and where does that leave a buyer? Here's the full picture, with a calculator.
By Renan Serretiello and Christopher Taddei, founding partners of The List, Orlando, Florida. Part 8 of the Florida CRE series. Data through Q3 2026.
The 60-second answers
- Is the building boom over? Mostly. Orlando completions peaked at 15,119 units in 2024 and ran 7,671 over the last 12 months. Q3 deliveries were 49% below last year's.
- What are rents doing? Flat, and starting to recover. Orlando asking rents were down 0.1% over the past year; Jacksonville just posted its first rent growth in four years.
- What changed on the expense side? A lot. Florida's median apartment property insurance fell about $318 a door, and from 2027 Amendment 3 caps non-school assessment growth at 5% a year.
- What are apartments selling for? Cap rates of about 5.3% to 5.6% across Florida's big metros, from $152,000 a unit in Jacksonville to $284,000 in Miami.
- Where's the risk? In specific submarkets still digesting new buildings, in loans maturing at higher rates, and in prices that leave little room above a 5% Treasury.
- Is there a tax break for workforce housing? Yes. The Live Local Act exempts 75% or 100% of the property tax on qualifying units, and a 2026 law made it harder for counties to opt out.
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If you own Florida apartments, the last three years taught you a specific kind of dread: watching a brand-new building open across the street with two months free and a rooftop pool, right as your insurance bill doubled. If you've been waiting to buy, you've had the opposite fear: that you'd miss the bottom while waiting for it.
Both fears are about to be tested, because the thing that caused them is ending. This guide pulls together the Q3 2026 data on supply, rents, expenses and pricing. It builds on the distress picture in part three, the insurance drop in part five and the Amendment 3 result from part four, and turns them into one question: what is a Florida apartment building actually worth in a market with fewer cranes and higher rates?
The supply wave is over
Short answer: in every major Florida metro, deliveries are falling fast, and in Orlando they've been cut in half.
Orlando is the clearest case. Annual completions peaked at 15,119 units in 2024. Over the 12 months through the third quarter of 2026, the metro delivered 7,671, and Q3's 1,443 units were 49% below the same quarter a year earlier. [1] Construction activity is down about 66% from its 2023 peak and 40% from a year ago, and this year renters have absorbed more units than developers delivered for the first time since 2021. [2]
Figure 1. Orlando's apartment deliveries have been cut in half (Orlando metro apartment completions, units)
| Period | Units delivered |
|---|---|
| 2024 (peak year) | 15,119 |
| Last 12 months | 7,671 |
| Q3 2025 | 2,812 |
| Q3 2026 | 1,443 |
Real data. Last 12 months runs through Q3 2026. Source: Matthews, Orlando multifamily market report, Q3 2026, using CoStar and RealPage data. [1]
The rest of the state is following. Tampa's trailing 12-month completions fell about 36% to 7,244 units, and its pipeline is now 3.3% of inventory, less than half the 7.4% peak in early 2023. [3] Jacksonville has just 2.7% of its inventory under construction. [4] Miami still has 6.8% underway after record completions of 10,883 units in 2024. [5]
And the pipeline isn't refilling. Cushman & Wakefield's Orlando team expects development to keep declining for three to five years, because new projects are hard to make work at today's rents. [2] For owners of existing buildings, that's the most important sentence in this guide. Tomorrow's competition isn't being built.
But not everywhere
Short answer: the metro averages hide submarkets where the wave is still breaking.
Figure 2. Two submarkets are still building at two to three times their metro's pace
Apartment units under construction as a share of existing inventory, Q3 2026.
| Market | Under construction, share of inventory |
|---|---|
| Downtown Miami / South Beach (submarket) | 12.0% |
| Ocoee / Winter Garden / Clermont (submarket) | 10.4% |
| Miami metro | 6.8% |
| Orlando metro | 4.2% |
| Tampa metro (Q2) | 3.3% |
| Jacksonville metro | 2.7% |
Real data. Tampa figure is from Q2 2026. Sources: Matthews multifamily market reports for Miami, Orlando, Jacksonville (Q3 2026) and Tampa (Q2 2026). [5] [1] [4] [3]
Golden nugget #1: buy the submarket, not the metro
Orlando as a whole has 4.2% of its apartment stock under construction. The Ocoee, Winter Garden and Clermont submarket has 10.4%. Downtown Miami and South Beach have 12.0%. In Orlando's International Drive corridor, occupancy was 88.3% in the second quarter with more than 2,500 units still in the pipeline, while Eastside, North Orlando and Windermere sat above 93% with nothing delivering. Same metro, same quarter, completely different deals. A building in a submarket with no pipeline can push rents in 2027. A building next to three lease-ups will be matching concessions until 2028. Before you price anything, count the cranes within three miles.
Rents and vacancy: flat, and turning
Short answer: rents have stopped falling, vacancy is tightening in most Florida metros, and concessions are concentrated in mid- and lower-tier buildings.
Orlando asking rents averaged $1,689 in the second quarter, down 0.1% from a year earlier. [6] Marcus & Millichap says effective rents began rebounding early this year after three straight annual declines, though concessions stayed near post-pandemic highs in the first quarter, mostly in mid- to lower-tier buildings. [2] Jacksonville just posted positive rent growth for the first time in four years, [7] and its vacancy fell to 6.0%. [4] Miami tightened to 4.4%, with one submarket's rents up 6.8%. [5]
The demand story hasn't changed. Orlando's population grew 11.5% from 2021 to 2026, nearly double Miami's 6.8%, and its average rent of about $1,828 compares with about $2,773 in Miami and $2,500 in West Palm Beach. [2] Floridians priced out of the coasts are moving to Central Florida, the same pattern we mapped in part two.
Why Orlando's vacancy is 5.3% and also 8.5%
Matthews, using CoStar and RealPage data, put Orlando apartment vacancy at 5.3% in Q3. Northmarq put it at 8.5% in Q2. Neither is wrong. Sources differ on which buildings they count, especially new ones still leasing up. As with office in part one and retail in [part seven](https://thelistorlando.com/blog/florida-retail-net-lease-investing-2026/#vacancy), pick one source and watch its trend.
The expense side did what rents couldn't
Short answer: the biggest NOI gain available to most Florida apartment owners in 2026 doesn't come from tenants. It comes from the insurance renewal.
Figure 3. Insurance moved NOI about 16 times more than rent did (approximate annual change per apartment unit, past year, $)
| Line | What happened | Per unit per year |
|---|---|---|
| Rent change over the past year | Orlando asking rent, down 0.1% | -$20 |
| Insurance savings | Florida median property premium per door, $797 to $479 | +$318 |
Our analysis. Illustrative combination of two sources: Orlando's average asking rent of $1,689, down 0.1% year over year (Northmarq, Q2 2026), and the drop in Florida's median multifamily property premium from $797 to $479 per door (Advocate Technologies via Insurance Journal). Individual properties vary widely. [6] [8]
Golden nugget #2: your insurance renewal did more for NOI this year than your rent roll did
The median Florida apartment's property premium fell about $318 per door between early 2025 and April 2026. Against Orlando's average rent, that's about 1.6% of annual revenue, in a year when rents moved 0.1% the wrong way. On a 200-unit property, it's $63,600 of NOI, worth roughly $1.2 million at Orlando's 5.31% average cap rate. If you haven't re-shopped your policy this cycle, that money is sitting on the table. Our [free renewal checklist](https://thelistorlando.com/blog/florida-commercial-property-insurance-2026/#checklist) walks through it.
Source for the premium data: Advocate Technologies via Insurance Journal. [8]
Property taxes are about to help too. Florida voters approved Amendment 3 on November 3. Apartments are non-homestead property, so starting in 2027 their assessed value for non-school taxes can rise no more than 5% a year instead of 10%. [9] It won't lower today's bill, school taxes are unchanged, and the assessment still resets when a property sells. But for long-term owners in fast-appreciating submarkets, it slows the largest expense line you don't control.
Put your own property through it
Apartment NOI and value calculator
The example is a 200-unit Orlando property at the metro's average rent, with a new insurance quote and 2% rent growth. Replace every number with your own.
- NOI today
- $2,310,448
- NOI after the changes
- $2,449,445
- NOI change
- $138,997
- Value change at your cap rate
- $2,617,645
Insurance accounts for $63,600 of the change and rent growth for $75,397.
NOI change $138,997. Insurance accounts for $63,600 of the change and rent growth for $75,397.
Illustrative only. "Other operating costs" is an example figure including taxes, payroll, repairs, utilities and management; use your own. Not investment advice.
What apartments cost: a whisker above Treasuries
Short answer: Florida apartment cap rates cluster between 5.3% and 5.6%, while the 10-year Treasury is above 5%.
Figure 4. Florida apartments yield barely more than a government bond (average multifamily cap rate by metro, 2026, %)
| Metro | Average cap rate | Price per unit |
|---|---|---|
| Orlando | 5.31% | $222,000 |
| Miami | 5.43% | $284,000 |
| Jacksonville | 5.54% | $152,000 |
| Tampa (Q2) | 5.61% | $207,000 |
| Fort Lauderdale | 5.64% | $267,000 |
| 10-year Treasury, end of September | Above 5.00% | - |
Real data. Q3 2026 except Tampa (Q2). Treasury level as of the end of September 2026. Sources: Matthews multifamily market reports; The Boulder Group. [1] [5] [4] [3] [10] [11]
Read that chart as a statement about expectations. A buyer paying a 5.31% cap rate in Orlando, with the 10-year Treasury above 5%, is accepting about a third of a point of extra yield in exchange for roofs, tenants and hurricane season. Nobody does that for today's income. They do it because they believe rents will rise as the supply fades.
That may well be right. But it means the price already includes the recovery. Cap rates have been rising for 17 or 18 straight quarters in Orlando, Miami and Fort Lauderdale, [1] [5] [10] and prices per unit are still below their 2022 peaks: 15% below in Jacksonville and about 6% below in Tampa. [4] [3] Jacksonville is the exception on direction; its cap rates have edged down for eight straight quarters. [4] As we showed for net lease in part seven, when debt costs more than the cap rate, borrowing lowers your cash return. The same math applies here, with bigger numbers.
The Live Local tax break, and the 2026 change most owners missed
Short answer: Florida exempts 75% or 100% of the property tax on qualifying workforce and affordable units, and a law that took effect July 1, 2026 made the 75% tier much harder for counties to refuse.
Under the Live Local Act, eligible apartment projects with at least 71 qualifying units get a 100% property tax exemption on units rented to households earning up to 80% of area median income, and a 75% exemption on units for households earning 80% to 120%. [12] In 2024, the Legislature let local governments with a surplus of affordable housing opt out of the 75% tier, and many did. Orange, Duval, Hillsborough and Pinellas were among the large counties eligible to opt out. [13] [14]
Golden nugget #3: the opt-out just got much harder
House Bill 1389, signed in June and effective July 1, 2026, requires a taxing authority to show three consecutive years of affordable housing surplus, up from one, before it can opt out of the 75% exemption. The 100% tier never had an opt-out at all. Run the math before you dismiss it. If 100 units qualify at the 75% tier and each carries about $2,000 a year in property tax, that's $150,000 of annual savings, roughly $2.7 million of value at a 5.5% cap rate. The trade is capped rents and compliance paperwork. For workforce housing that already rents near those levels, the exemption can be worth more than a renovation. Rules are detailed and local, so check eligibility with a Florida tax attorney and your county property appraiser before you underwrite a dollar of it.
Sources: Bilzin Sumberg; Greenberg Traurig. [15] [13] The savings example is our own illustration.
It's also where capital is going. Brokers report that anything affordable in greater Orlando is well received by investors right now, [2] and Orange County's Catchlight Crossings project is bringing 1,000 units, 600 for lower-income households and 400 for the "missing middle." [16]
What could go wrong
- Debt maturities. The floating-rate loans written in 2021 and 2022 are still working through the system. Part three covered where Florida's apartment distress is concentrated. That's a risk if it's your loan and an opportunity if it's someone else's.
- Rates. Brokers say rising rates over the past 18 months have slowed investment. [2] With cap rates this close to Treasuries, another move up in yields hits values directly.
- Concessions that outlast the supply. Lease-ups in heavy-pipeline submarkets will keep offering free rent into 2027. Check effective rent, not asking rent.
- The tax reset. Amendment 3 doesn't stop the assessment from resetting to market value after a sale. Underwrite your post-closing tax bill with our tax line worksheet.
- Insurance isn't permanent. Soft insurance markets end. Stress-test the premium at exit, as we showed in part five.
For investors: the Florida apartment playbook
Everything above, turned into decisions.
1. Underwrite the submarket's pipeline, not the metro's
Map every project under construction and in lease-up within three miles. A 10% pipeline next door changes your first two years more than anything in the offering memo. [1]
2. Rebuild the expense side from scratch
Get a current insurance quote, model the post-sale tax reset, and apply Amendment 3's 5% cap to non-school taxes from 2027. The seller's trailing 12 months is wrong on all three, in different directions.
3. Assume flat rents first, growth second
Underwrite the next 12 months flat, then let the falling pipeline do the work. If the deal only pencils with 4% rent growth in year one, it's priced for a market that isn't here yet.
4. Respect the Treasury spread
At a 5.3% cap rate with a 5% Treasury, leverage rarely helps. Favor lower leverage and longer, fixed-rate debt, and run the cash-on-cash math before you sign a term sheet.
5. Look hard at workforce housing
It's where demand is deepest, where investors are most active, and where the Live Local exemptions can change the math. [2] [15]
6. Watch the distress, patiently
Lenders are still resolving 2021 and 2022 loans. The best basis in this cycle may come from a note sale or a receivership, not a marketed deal.
7. For new development, start with the map
With construction this slow, a well-located 2028 delivery could face very little competition. If you're building, check whether your site lands in a certified Opportunity Zone, per part six, and whether Live Local zoning and tax benefits apply.
The bottom line for investors
The worst of the supply is behind Florida apartments, the expense side has turned in owners' favor, and prices are below peak. What's missing is cheap debt. That favors patient buyers with real equity, and owners who do the unglamorous work of re-shopping insurance and appealing taxes. Browse current [listings](https://thelistorlando.com/listings/), or [tell us what you're looking for](https://thelistorlando.com/contact/#start) and we'll run the numbers with you.
The Florida CRE series
- Florida commercial real estate, fall 2026: what the numbers actually say
- Follow the rooftops: Florida's inland markets
- Florida's CRE debt reckoning: where the distress is, and isn't
- Florida commercial property taxes, explained
- Florida commercial property insurance in 2026
- Florida Opportunity Zones 2.0
- Florida retail and net lease in 2026
- Florida apartments in 2026 (you're here)
Frequently asked questions
Is the Florida apartment construction boom over?
Largely, yes. In Orlando, annual completions peaked at 15,119 units in 2024 and were 7,671 over the 12 months through the third quarter of 2026, and construction activity is down about 66% from its 2023 peak. Tampa's trailing completions fell about 36% and its pipeline is less than half its 2023 peak share of inventory. Some submarkets still have heavy pipelines.
What is the apartment vacancy rate in Orlando?
It depends on the source. Matthews, using CoStar and RealPage data, reported 5.3% in the third quarter of 2026. Northmarq reported 8.5% in the second quarter. The difference largely reflects what each source counts, such as whether new buildings still leasing up are included.
Are apartment rents rising in Florida?
Rents are flat to slightly rising. Northmarq reported Orlando asking rents of $1,689, down 0.1% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, and Marcus & Millichap reported effective rents rebounding in 2026 after three straight annual declines. Jacksonville posted its first positive rent growth in four years.
What are apartment cap rates in Florida?
In 2026 reports from Matthews, average multifamily cap rates were about 5.31% in Orlando, 5.43% in Miami, 5.54% in Jacksonville, 5.61% in Tampa and 5.64% in Fort Lauderdale, while the 10-year Treasury yield was above 5%.
How does Amendment 3 affect Florida apartment owners?
Apartments are non-homestead property, so beginning in 2027 their assessed value for non-school taxes can rise no more than 5% a year, down from 10%. School taxes are unchanged, and the assessment still resets to market value when the property sells.
What is the Live Local Act property tax exemption?
Florida's Live Local Act offers a 100% property tax exemption on qualifying units rented to households earning up to 80% of area median income and a 75% exemption on units for households earning 80% to 120%, in eligible projects with at least 71 qualifying units. Local governments can opt out of the 75% tier only if they meet a housing surplus test, which a 2026 law tightened to three consecutive years.
How much have apartment insurance costs fallen in Florida?
Advocate Technologies data reported by Insurance Journal show the median Florida multifamily property premium fell from $797 per door in early 2025 to $479 in April 2026, about 40%. That $318 per unit is about 1.6% of the average annual Orlando rent.
Is now a good time to buy apartments in Florida?
Fundamentals are improving as new supply falls and expenses drop, and prices per unit are below their 2022 peaks in markets such as Jacksonville and Tampa. The main headwind is the cost of debt: cap rates sit only slightly above Treasury yields, so returns depend on rent growth, low leverage and careful submarket selection.
This guide is for general information and education. It is not investment, tax or legal advice, and The List is not acting as your financial advisor, attorney or tax advisor. Market conditions, rents, cap rates and interest rates change quickly, and tax exemptions depend on specific eligibility rules. Market data come from third-party research and differ by source because each measures a different inventory and period; Figure 3, the calculator and the Live Local example are our own illustrative calculations. Talk to qualified advisors about your situation.
Buying, selling or refinancing Florida apartments?
Send us the rent roll and the trailing 12 months. We'll rebuild the insurance and tax lines, map the pipeline around the property, and tell you what the numbers support.