Florida commercial real estate, fall 2026: what the numbers actually say

By Renan Serretiello and Christopher Taddei, founding partners of The List, Orlando, Florida. Part 1 of the Florida CRE series. Data through Q2 2026.

The short version

• Florida's growth engine changed. It didn't stop. Net domestic migration fell from 310,892 in 2022 to 22,517 in 2025. Almost all growth is now international, and U.S. movers are heading inland to Polk, Pasco and Marion counties.
• Money got more expensive again. The Fed hiked to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, and the 10-year Treasury sits near 5%. Most Florida market-average cap rates sit less than 1.1 points above it.
• Retail is the tightest sector in the state. Retail vacancy is 3.3% in Miami, 3.7% in Palm Beach and 3.9% in Orlando, against roughly 6% for U.S. shopping centers.
• Industrial is a tenant's market with a closing window. Every major Florida metro sits above the 6.8% national vacancy rate, but construction pipelines have collapsed.
• Office split in two. Record asking rents in Miami, Tampa and Orlando for the best space. Cap rates of 8% and up for the tired stuff.
• Three policy shifts are hiding in your NOI. The commercial rent tax is gone, commercial windstorm premiums are falling, and Amendment 3 goes to voters on November 3.

Let's start with the uncomfortable part. The story most people still tell about Florida commercial real estate, the one where a thousand-plus new residents a day float every property type and falling interest rates rescue every deal, stopped being true a while ago. This year the official numbers caught up with it.

In 2022, Florida gained 598,737 people through migration, roughly 1,640 a day. In 2025 it gained 201,191, about 551 a day. [1] Then on September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury pushed back above 5%. [2]

And yet. Office asking rents set all-time highs in Miami, Tampa and Orlando this year. Retail vacancy across South Florida and Orlando is running under 4%. Industrial markets that were drowning in new buildings a year ago are soaking them up.

Both halves are true. This report explains how, using second quarter 2026 data from the major brokerages, CoStar, the U.S. Census Bureau, the University of Florida and the Federal Reserve. Every number is sourced at the bottom of the page, and every chart names its source next to the data. At the end, we'll tell you what we would actually do about it.

The growth engine changed. It didn't stop.

Commercial real estate in Florida has run on one fuel for five years: people. More residents meant more shoppers, more patients, more packages, more office workers. So the first thing any serious investor needs to see is what happened to the flow of people. Here it is.

Net domestic migration is arrivals from other U.S. states minus departures. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates as reported by Florida Trend and the UF Shimberg Center (2022, 2023, 2025). [3] *2024 is the Census Vintage 2024 estimate; Census revises prior years with each release, so treat it as approximate.

That is not a typo. Florida went from the top destination for Americans moving between states to eighth place in 2025, behind Alabama. [3] If you subtract the 22,517 domestic arrivals from the 201,191 total, you get the real headline: roughly 178,700 of Florida's 2025 migration gain, close to nine out of every ten new residents, came from outside the country. And with births and deaths essentially cancelling out, migration is now the entire growth story. [1]

Where the people went instead

The statewide total hides a map that has been quietly redrawn. According to the University of Florida's Shimberg Center, Miami-Dade posted the largest domestic population loss in the state in 2025, with nearly 73,000 more residents leaving for other counties and states than arriving. Broward kept losing too. Orange, Hillsborough and Pinellas, the core counties of Orlando and Tampa Bay, all posted net domestic outflows. [1]

Meanwhile, Polk County ranked among the five strongest U.S. counties for domestic migration for the fifth year running. Pasco logged the second highest migration gains in Florida, and Marion kept its steady pull. One detail matters a lot here: during the 2021 to 2023 surge, about 59% of domestic newcomers to Polk and Pasco came from other Florida counties. [1] A big share of Florida's "growth" is Floridians moving somewhere cheaper in Florida.

Rooftops lead. Retail, medical office and small-bay service industrial follow. The rooftops moved inland.

For commercial real estate, that is the single most useful sentence in this report. The next five years of demand for grocery-anchored retail, urgent care, medical office and contractor bays points toward Lakeland and Haines City, Wesley Chapel and Land O' Lakes, and Ocala, not just toward the famous downtowns. We map those markets county by county in part two of this series. Around Orlando, the same logic points south and west, toward Osceola and the US-192 corridor and the Sunshine Corridor, where infrastructure is being built ahead of the rooftops.

The rate reset nobody was underwriting

If you have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to fall before you buy, here's the part nobody enjoys saying out loud: the market is no longer pricing that.

On September 16, the Fed voted unanimously to lift its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since 2023. [2] The 10-year Treasury climbed above 5%, near its highest level in about 19 years. The Fed now projects 2026 headline inflation (PCE) at 3.7%, and 16 of 19 policymakers expect at least one more hike before year end. [5]

Why should a strip center owner in Kissimmee care? Because commercial mortgages are priced off Treasuries plus a lender's spread. The 10-year at 5% is the floor under your loan, not the price of it. And a lot of Florida property is trading at cap rates that sit right on top of that floor.

Dark green bars are Florida market averages; light green bars are the 10-year Treasury today (about 5.0%) and the U.S. retail average. All cap rates are CoStar market averages as published in Matthews quarterly market reports. [6] [7] [8] [9] Averages blend all qualities and lease types, so individual deals trade well above and below them. The 10-year Treasury peaked at 4.67% in the first half of 2026, per coverage of CBRE's H1 2026 Cap Rate Survey. [10]

Two things jump out. First, Florida retail trades roughly 120 to 130 basis points tighter than CoStar's 7.3% national retail average. [6] Investors are paying a real Florida premium. Second, and more important, these averages mostly reflect deals that closed while the 10-year peaked at 4.67% in the first half of the year. [10] The Treasury has since climbed to about 5%. The spreads in Figure 2 are already thinner than the buyers who set them were planning on.

What negative leverage looks like in real dollars

Here's a simple, hypothetical example using Miami's market-average retail cap rate. Say you buy a $5 million retail building at a 5.8% cap. That's $290,000 a year in net operating income. You put $2 million down and borrow $3 million at an illustrative 6.75% interest-only rate. Your interest bill is $202,500. What's left for you is $87,500, a 4.4% cash return on your $2 million.

Paid all cash, the same building yields 5.8%. The loan made your return worse. That's negative leverage, and it's the math quietly killing a lot of Florida deals right now. It doesn't mean don't buy. It means one of three things has to be true: you're buying at a yield above your debt cost, you have a credible reason rents will grow into the gap, or you're using a lot less debt than you would have in 2021. You can run this math on your own deal with our deal calculators.

For corridor-level yields in Central Florida, see our Cap Rate Index.

Before you trust any vacancy number, read this

This is the section most market reports will never write, and it might be the most valuable habit you take away from this one.

In the second quarter of 2026, three of the biggest brokerages in the world published office vacancy for Miami-Dade County. Same county. Same three months. Here's what they said, along with two more Florida markets where the same thing happened.

Sources, all Q2 2026: Colliers, Newmark and CBRE for Miami-Dade office; [11] [12] [13] Avison Young, Newmark and CBRE for Orlando industrial; [14] [15] [16] Cushman & Wakefield, CoStar (via Matthews) and Savills for Tampa Bay industrial. [17] [9] [18]

Nobody is lying. Each firm tracks a different universe of buildings. Some count only multi-tenant properties above a certain size. Some include owner-occupied buildings, some don't. Submarket boundaries differ. Class definitions differ. Lee & Associates, for example, spells out that its Central Florida industrial numbers cover buildings of 20,000 square feet and up in Orange and Seminole counties, and leave out condos and self-storage. [19] Change the rules and you change the answer.

Here's how we'd use that knowledge:

• Compare a market to itself. Track one source over time. Direction is more reliable than level.
• Compare markets inside one source. Newmark's Miami against Newmark's Orlando tells you something. Colliers' Miami against CBRE's Orlando tells you almost nothing. That's why Figure 2 uses a single source for every cap rate.
• Watch absorption, not just vacancy. Vacancy can rise because a great new building delivered. Negative absorption means tenants actually left. If any term here is new to you, our CRE glossary covers 250+ of them with Florida context.
• Ask which dataset you're being quoted. If a broker pitching you a building can't answer, that tells you something too. In every chart in this report, the source sits right next to the number.

Office: two markets wearing the same name

Nationally, office is still the problem child. Cushman & Wakefield put U.S. vacancy at 20.1% in the second quarter, with average asking rent of $38.38. [20] Florida's major metros look nothing like that, at least at the top of the market.

Full-service asking rents are averages across all classes. [12] [20] [21] [15] Other firms report Miami-Dade higher: $65.50 at Colliers and $68.60 at CBRE. [11] [13] Newmark's Tampa figure is from Q1 2026, its most recent Tampa office release at the time of writing.

Miami-Dade: the tightest major office market in the country, by Yardi's count

Yardi Matrix ranked Miami's office vacancy the lowest of any major U.S. market this spring, 12.5% against a 17.6% national average, both measured on Yardi's own dataset. [22] The brokerages agree on direction even where they differ on level. CBRE logged 344,000 square feet of positive absorption in Q2 and average asking rents of $68.60. [13] Colliers reported record full-service asking rents of $65.50 overall and $73.37 for Class A, with 1.6 million square feet under construction. [11] Money is following: Miami office investment reached $892 million in the first quarter, second only to Manhattan, at an average of $463 per square foot, more than double the national figure. [23]

Remember the migration chart, though. Miami-Dade is losing domestic residents. Its office strength is running on finance, relocations and international wealth, not on headcount. That's a narrower base, and it's worth pricing that way.

Orlando: expensive because nothing new is coming

Newmark reported Orlando office vacancy at 13.4% in Q2 with asking rents at an all-time high of $27.45, up 7% year over year. The construction pipeline is 40,000 square feet, just 0.1% of inventory and the thinnest since 2020. [15] But look at the other number in the same report: 740,016 square feet of leasing, the weakest second quarter since 2009.

Translation: Orlando office rents aren't climbing because tenants are stampeding in. They're climbing because no new buildings are coming to compete. That's a real advantage for owners of good existing buildings. It's also a reason not to overpay for demand that isn't quite as hot as the rent line suggests. Our Orlando office market analysis breaks this down by submarket, and medical office, which follows the rooftops rather than the downtowns, gets its own page.

Tampa Bay: the market that shrank its way healthier

Newmark put Tampa's first quarter asking rent at a record $30.30, up 5.6% year over year, with vacancy at 14.5%, only 137,338 square feet under construction, and no new groundbreakings for four straight quarters. [21] Over the past year, more than one million square feet of office was pulled out of the inventory through redevelopment and conversion, and downtown Tampa and downtown St. Petersburg are both below 10% vacancy. [24] In Q2, the $94 million sale of 400 N. Ashley Drive led $131.7 million in office sales across the region. [25]

Jacksonville: the highest vacancy, the clearest improvement

CBRE reported Jacksonville office vacancy at 23.7% in Q2, down 140 basis points from a year earlier, with about 385,000 square feet of positive absorption so far this year. [26] Cushman & Wakefield, using its own inventory, had it at 20.5%, the lowest in three years. [27] Either way, it's moving the right direction.

Industrial: tenants hold the cards, for now

This one surprises people. Nationally, industrial just turned a corner. JLL reported U.S. vacancy compressed to 6.8% in Q2, the first meaningful drop since mid-2023. [29] Florida is lagging that recovery, and every major metro in the state sits above the national line.

One source per market, chosen for recency and coverage. [26] [15] [30] [31] [17] [29] Remember Figure 3: other firms report different levels for the same markets. The direction, though, is consistent across sources.

The reason is simple: developers built for the 2022 population curve, and the buildings arrived after the curve bent. Now the other shoe is dropping, and this time it's good news for owners. The pipelines have collapsed:

• Jacksonville had 5.1 million square feet under construction in early 2025. By Q1 2026 that was down to about 764,000. [32] Big tenants noticed: CBRE flagged a 1.1 million square foot Northside lease and a 604,000 square foot Westside lease in Q2, and vacancy fell 40 basis points from the prior quarter to 10.9%. [26]
• Tampa Bay's pipeline fell to 4.8 million square feet in Q1, the lowest since late 2021, while asking rents hit a record $9.14 per square foot. [21] Lakeland in Polk County drove most Q2 leasing, with nearly 603,000 square feet signed. [17] Note the county. See the migration section.
• Orlando posted its fourth straight quarter of positive absorption, with NNN asking rents up to $12.24. [14] Lee & Associates counted 996,347 square feet of net absorption in Orange and Seminole counties in Q2, the strongest quarter in a year. [19] We track Orlando industrial corridor by corridor, from SR-528 and southeast Orange to Apopka, West Orange and Lake Nona. Start with the Orlando industrial market overview.
• Miami-Dade delivered 769,100 square feet in Q2 and still logged positive absorption and rent growth, including a 190,351 square foot lease by CompletePet Florida at Beacon Logistics Park. [31]
• Palm Beach County is the soft spot, with negative absorption, 8.0% vacancy and asking rents slipping to $15.32. Berger Commercial's own summary is that the market is recalibrating, not collapsing. [30]

Our guides to small-bay and multi-tenant space and urban infill cover those segments in Orlando.

Retail: the tightest room in the house

For a decade, almost nobody built new shopping centers in Florida. Then millions of people showed up. The result is the tightest major property type in the state.

Florida bars are CoStar data as published by Matthews. [6] [33] The U.S. comparison is Cushman & Wakefield's national shopping center vacancy, a different dataset shown for scale only. [17] Orlando's reading is from Q1 2026, the most recent published at the time of writing.

South Florida retail as a whole posted 3.5% vacancy in Q2, with Miami at 3.3%, Palm Beach at 3.7% and Fort Lauderdale at 4.1%. Palm Beach asking rents climbed 7.1% in a year to $38.98 per square foot, among the fastest growth in the state. [6] Orlando retail vacancy was about 3.9% in Q1 with asking rents near $31, up 5.4% year over year, [33] at a time when U.S. retail rent growth posted its weakest first quarter since 2014. [34] Southern Orlando suburbs and Osceola County were running near 2% vacancy late last year. [35] On the Gulf Coast, Cushman & Wakefield had Tampa Bay at 3.8% in Q2. [17]

Tight doesn't mean bulletproof. Cushman & Wakefield's own read is that grocery-anchored centers, neighborhood strips and high-income suburban corridors are best positioned, while malls and older power centers face more pressure. [34] Format matters more than zip code.

See our Orlando retail market analysis for submarket detail.

Multifamily: still digesting the last wave

Apartments are where the migration slowdown and the construction boom collide most directly. Orlando delivered 4,578 units in the first half of 2026 alone, growing its inventory by 2.8%. [36] Jacksonville absorbed 2,910 units year to date, but occupancy is still 210 basis points lower than a year ago. [27] Miami had nearly 13,800 units under construction as of Q1, almost a third of them downtown. [37]

The pipeline is where the good news is. Jacksonville's units under construction have fallen to about 2.35% of inventory, down from an 11.64% peak in early 2023, one of the sharpest contractions in the country, and rents there posted their first year-over-year gain in three years. [8] Investors haven't left, either. Tampa's five-year multifamily sales volume reached $15.0 billion, second in Florida only to Orlando. [17] South Florida multifamily cap rates have held near 5.0%, though first quarter sales there fell 14% to about $1.01 billion as fewer large portfolios traded. [28]

The cost stack: three policy shifts most investors are underpricing

Florida's operating costs changed more in the last twelve months than in the previous five. Two of these changes help you. One is on the ballot in five weeks.

1. The commercial rent tax is gone

For occupancy periods starting October 1, 2025, Florida repealed both the 2% state sales tax and any local surtax on commercial rent under HB 7031. Florida had been the only state in the country charging it. [38] On a $10,000 a month lease, the state portion alone is $2,400 a year back in the tenant's pocket. [39] For owner-users who lease their building from their own related entity, structures that were set up partly to manage this tax may deserve a fresh look with your CPA. We cover the details in our commercial rent tax repeal guide.

2. Insurance is finally bending the right way

The Florida Surplus Lines Association reported commercial windstorm and hail costs down 47% and commercial business costs down 10%, figures the Governor's office highlighted in January. [40] Large commercial property accounts saw premiums fall roughly 2.7% on average in the first half of 2026, though many small businesses saw little of that relief. [41] Practical upshot: don't underwrite next year's insurance off last year's bill. Get a fresh quote before you set your offer price. It can move your NOI more than you'd expect.

3. Amendment 3 goes to voters November 3

Most coverage of Amendment 3 talks about homeowners. Commercial owners should read the fine print. If it passes with the required 60% of the vote, the annual cap on assessment increases for non-homestead property, which includes commercial property, drops from 10% to 5% starting January 1, 2027. [42] That's a direct benefit to landlords in appreciating markets.

The other side of the ledger: the state's Revenue Estimating Conference pegs the cost at about $12 billion a year in recurring local revenue, [43] and Orange County alone estimates losses of about $165 million in 2027 and $275 million in 2028. [44] Florida TaxWatch notes the amendment doesn't prevent local governments from raising other taxes or fees to fill that gap. [45]

Supporters argue it delivers long-overdue relief and protects owners from runaway assessments. Critics argue the burden shifts to renters, businesses and local services. How you vote is your call, and we're not going to make it for you. What we would do is model both outcomes on any Florida acquisition closing in the next year: a slower assessment path on one hand, and the possibility of higher millage, impact fees or special assessments on the other.

Metro scorecard

Everything above, on one screen. Where firms disagree materially, we show the range.

All figures Q2 2026 unless noted. Ranges reflect different brokerage inventories; see Figure 3 and the sources list. Retail vacancy is CoStar data except Tampa Bay (Cushman & Wakefield).

What we'd actually do with this

Data is only useful if it changes a decision. Here's how we'd think about it depending on where you sit.

If you own property with debt maturing in the next 24 months

Stop waiting for cuts that the bond market has stopped pricing. Run your refinance at today's rates, not January's. If the numbers don't work at a 5% Treasury plus a realistic spread, start the conversation with your lender now, while you still have time and options. Part three of this series covers what happens when that conversation comes too late.

If you're buying

Underwrite negative leverage honestly, like the example above. Favor assets where the going-in yield clears your debt cost, or where there's a specific, defensible reason rents will grow: submarkets with no construction pipeline, product types with sub-4% vacancy, locations in the counties still gaining residents. And ask every broker which dataset they're quoting. If you're rolling sale proceeds into Florida, our 1031 exchange replacement property playbook covers timing and target property types, and our current listings include off-market opportunities.

If you're a tenant

Industrial tenants in Jacksonville, Orlando and Palm Beach have their best leverage in years; use it for longer terms, concessions and renewal options before the collapsed pipeline flips the market. Office tenants eyeing Miami trophy space should expect little negotiating room. Retail tenants in growth corridors should move fast when good space opens, because it won't sit. Browse current availabilities.

If you're investing from outside the U.S.

Florida's growth is now overwhelmingly international, which is the part of the story that still has momentum. U.S. dollar income, no state personal income tax and a deep, transparent transaction market still make Florida one of the most straightforward places to own American real estate. Just price it for 2026 growth, not 2022 growth, and get cross-border tax advice before you structure anything. Our investor intelligence page is the place to start.

If you're an owner-user

Your occupancy cost dropped when the rent tax disappeared, and your insurance may drop at renewal if you shop it. Buying your own building still makes sense when you plan to stay long enough to ride out today's rates, but run a real lease-versus-own comparison that uses current debt costs. If you're sitting on capital gains, Florida's opportunity zones are worth a look.

What we're watching into year end

• Mid to late October: Third quarter brokerage reports land. Our main question is whether Florida industrial absorption keeps its momentum and closes the gap with the national rate. Get the update by email.
• November 3: Amendment 3 vote. Then, if it passes, how counties respond in their next budget cycles.
• November 30: Hurricane season ends. A quiet finish would support another round of favorable insurance renewals in 2027.
• December FOMC meeting: Most Fed officials expect one more hike this year. A pause or a hike moves every spread in Figure 2.
• December: The Census Bureau's next state population estimates, the first real test of whether domestic migration to Florida has found its floor.

Go deeper

This report covers the whole state. Our corridor-level research goes further on Central Florida, with the same habit of naming sources.

• Orlando CRE market reports: 17 corridor and sector guides in one place
• Cap Rate Index: yield benchmarks by sector and corridor
• Orlando industrial market: submarket vacancy, rents, pipeline and cap rates
• Orlando office market: rents, vacancy and the adaptive reuse pipeline
• Orlando retail market: tourism corridors, neighborhood centers, F&B demand
• Orlando hospitality: hotels, RevPAR and the convention center expansion
• Orlando medical office: MOB vacancy and the life sciences corridor
• Deal calculators: 29 underwriting tools, including debt and cap rate math

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The Florida CRE series

1. Florida commercial real estate, fall 2026: what the numbers actually say (you're here)
2. Follow the rooftops: Florida's inland markets
3. Florida's CRE debt reckoning: where the distress is, and isn't

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Frequently asked questions

Is Florida commercial real estate still a good investment in 2026?

It depends on the sector and the debt. Retail and top tier office are posting record or near record fundamentals, while industrial and multifamily are still absorbing new supply. With the 10-year Treasury near 5% after the Fed's September hike, and most Florida market-average cap rates between 5.4% and 6.1%, deals only work where the going-in yield or realistic rent growth clears the cost of borrowing.

Which Florida commercial real estate sector is strongest right now?

Retail. CoStar data shows Q2 2026 retail vacancy of 3.3% in Miami, 3.7% in Palm Beach and 4.1% in Fort Lauderdale, with Orlando at 3.9% in Q1 2026, compared with roughly 6% for U.S. shopping centers.

Why do different reports show different vacancy rates for the same Florida market?

Each brokerage tracks a different set of buildings, with different size minimums, class definitions, submarket boundaries and treatment of owner-occupied space. In Q2 2026, Colliers, Newmark and CBRE reported Miami-Dade office vacancy anywhere from 10.8% to 14.9%. Compare a market to itself over time using one source.

How does the Fed's September 2026 rate hike affect Florida commercial real estate?

The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury moved to about 5%. Commercial loans price off Treasuries plus a spread, so many Florida deals at 5% to 6% cap rates now face negative leverage, where borrowing lowers your cash return on equity.

Did Florida eliminate sales tax on commercial rent?

Yes. HB 7031 repealed the state sales tax and local surtaxes on commercial leases for occupancy periods beginning October 1, 2025. Florida had been the only state to tax commercial rent.

How would Amendment 3 affect Florida commercial property owners?

If approved on November 3, 2026 with at least 60% of the vote, it would lower the annual assessment increase cap for non-homestead property, including commercial property, from 10% to 5% starting in 2027. It would also cut local property tax revenue by an estimated $12 billion a year, and it doesn't stop local governments from raising other fees or taxes.

Is Florida's population still growing?

Yes, but more slowly and differently. Florida gained 201,191 people through migration in 2025, down from 598,737 in 2022. Net domestic migration fell to 22,517, so most growth now comes from international arrivals, and U.S. movers are favoring mid-sized counties like Polk, Pasco and Marion.

Methodology and sources

This report draws on publicly released Q1 and Q2 2026 brokerage research, CoStar data as published in Matthews market reports, U.S. Census Bureau estimates as analyzed by the University of Florida, Florida state agencies, and Federal Reserve coverage. Where firms report different figures for the same market, we name the source for each number and show ranges where the gap is material. Cross-market comparisons of cap rates use a single data source. No company named here reviewed or sponsored this report. Sources are numbered in the order they first appear.

1. University of Florida News, Florida migration slowed sharply in 2025, with mid-sized counties continuing to grow, July 13, 2026
2. CNBC, 10-year Treasury yield climbs back to 5% after Fed hikes rates, September 16, 2026
3. Florida Trend / The Center Square, Florida's pandemic population boom cools, February 2026
4. Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, Executive Summary, December 3, 2025
5. Charles Schwab, Fed hikes in 12-0 vote, commits to inflation fight, September 2026
6. Matthews, South Florida Retail Market Report Q2 2026 (CoStar data)
7. Matthews, South Florida Industrial Market Report Q1 2026 (CoStar data)
8. Matthews, Jacksonville Multifamily Market Report Q2 2026 (CoStar data)
9. Matthews, Tampa Industrial Market Report Q2 2026 (CoStar data)
10. Yahoo Finance, CBRE H1 2026 Cap Rate Survey finds sentiment split, August 2026; see also CBRE, A more guarded outlook for cap rates
11. Colliers, Miami-Dade County Office Market Report, Q2 2026
12. Newmark, Miami Office Market Report, Q2 2026
13. CBRE, Miami Office Figures, Q2 2026
14. Avison Young, Orlando Industrial Market Report, Q2 2026
15. Newmark, Orlando Real Estate Market Report (office and industrial), Q2 2026
16. CBRE, Orlando Industrial Figures, Q2 2026
17. Cushman & Wakefield, Tampa Bay MarketBeats, Q2 2026
18. Savills, Tampa Bay Q2 2026 Industrial Market Report
19. Lee & Associates Central Florida, Q2 2026 Industrial Market Report
20. Cushman & Wakefield, U.S. Office MarketBeat, Q2 2026
21. Newmark, Tampa Real Estate Market Report, Q1 2026
22. Allwork.Space, Miami now has the lowest office vacancy rate among major U.S. markets (Yardi Matrix data), May 2026
23. Commercial Property Executive, Miami's office vacancy tightens, investment shines (Yardi Matrix), June 2026
24. Tampa Bay Business & Wealth, Tampa Bay office vacancy hits four-year low, April 2026
25. Avison Young, Tampa Office Market Report, Q2 2026
26. Trinity Commercial Group, summary of CBRE Jacksonville Q2 2026 office and industrial data, August 2026
27. Cushman & Wakefield, Jacksonville MarketBeats, Q2 2026
28. ConnectLinx, How high interest rates are reshaping South Florida commercial real estate, June 2026 (office cap rates; South Florida multifamily, citing MIAMI Realtors)
29. JLL, U.S. Industrial Market Dynamics, Q2 2026
30. Berger Commercial Realty, Palm Beach County Industrial Market Report, Q2 2026
31. Colliers, Miami-Dade County Industrial Market Report, Q2 2026
32. Jax Daily Record, Logistics: Balancing the market (Colliers Q1 2026 data), May 2026
33. Matthews, Orlando Retail Market Report Q1 2026 (CoStar data)
34. Hoodline, Orlando retail rents stay strong while rest of U.S. hits the brakes (CoStar and Cushman & Wakefield data), April 2026
35. Institutional Property Advisors, Orlando 2026 Retail Investment Forecast
36. Cushman & Wakefield, Orlando MarketBeats, Q2 2026
37. Cushman & Wakefield, Miami MarketBeats, Q1 2026 multifamily
38. Holland & Knight, Florida HB 7031 becomes effective Oct. 1, 2025
39. Kaufman Rossin, Florida bill eliminates sales tax on commercial rent, July 2025
40. Executive Office of the Governor, insurance rate relief announcement, January 2026
41. Florida Professionals, Florida small business insurance costs in 2026, September 2026
42. Florida Senate, Senate passes property tax amendment, June 2, 2026
43. Florida Policy Institute, Amendment 3 ballot language summary and local fiscal impacts, June 2026
44. Orange County Government, Property Tax Amendment 3
45. Florida TaxWatch, Florida Property Tax Resource Center, August 2026

Cite this report: Serretiello, R. and Taddei, C. (2026, September 30). Florida commercial real estate, fall 2026: what the numbers actually say. The List. https://thelistorlando.com/blog/florida-commercial-real-estate-market-report-fall-2026/

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This report is for general information and education. It is not investment, legal, tax or insurance advice, and The List is not acting as your financial advisor or attorney. Market data comes from third-party sources believed to be reliable but not independently verified, and conditions change quickly. Talk to qualified professionals about your specific situation before making a decision.