How does the SunRail PDE study timeline affect my land banking hold period?

The PDE study timeline directly determines the minimum hold period for the land banking thesis, and investors must underwrite the full duration. PDE study completion: typically 18 to 30 months for a commuter rail PDE of this scope, placing completion at approximately late 2026 to mid-2027. NEPA environmental review: 2 to 3 years following PDE completion, placing clearance at approximately 2028 to 2030. Federal funding application: FDOT files the FTA Small Starts or New Starts application 1 to 2 years after NEPA clearance, placing the application at approximately 2029 to 2031. Federal grant award: the FTA evaluation and award process takes 1 to 2 years, placing the grant at approximately 2030 to 2033. Final design and construction: 3 to 5 years from grant award to revenue service, placing opening at approximately 2033 to 2038. The realistic opening window spans 2033 to 2038 depending on federal funding cycles, political priorities, and construction complexity. For the land banker, this means: hold period to capture transit premium at grant award (Phase 4, which is the primary land banking exit) is 5 to 8 years from today. Hold period to transit opening is 8 to 15 years. The Calculator A in Section 7 models the holding period economics at both exit scenarios. The key question is not whether the timeline is long, because it is. The key question is whether the projected appreciation exceeds the cumulative carry cost at your specific acquisition basis.