ORLANDO INDUSTRIAL7.2%+0.4%
MIAMI MULTIFAMILY$3,420+1.2%
TAMPA RETAIL4.8%-0.2%
US-192 CORRIDOR$340/SF+4.1%
30Y FIXED MORTGAGE6.72%-0.08%
FED PROBABILITY (PAUSE)92%+2%
ORLANDO INDUSTRIAL7.2%+0.4%
MIAMI MULTIFAMILY$3,420+1.2%
TAMPA RETAIL4.8%-0.2%
US-192 CORRIDOR$340/SF+4.1%
30Y FIXED MORTGAGE6.72%-0.08%
FED PROBABILITY (PAUSE)92%+2%
ORLANDO INDUSTRIAL7.2%+0.4%
MIAMI MULTIFAMILY$3,420+1.2%
TAMPA RETAIL4.8%-0.2%
US-192 CORRIDOR$340/SF+4.1%
30Y FIXED MORTGAGE6.72%-0.08%
FED PROBABILITY (PAUSE)92%+2%

How certain is it that the Sunshine Corridor actually gets built?

The certainty must be framed through the federal transit funding process, not as a binary yes-or-no. The highest-certainty gate has already passed: the $6M PDE study was funded April 24, 2025, with unanimous SunRail Board approval and four-party financial commitment from FDOT ($2M), Universal ($2M), and four Central Florida jurisdictions ($500K each). No party writes a $500K to $2M check for engineering work they intend to abandon. The remaining gates each carry quantifiable risk. NEPA environmental review: probability of clearance approximately 80%, given the corridor traverses primarily commercial and industrial land with limited environmental sensitivity. Federal funding application: probability of filing approximately 85%, since PDE completion is the prerequisite and FDOT has a strong track record with FTA applications. Federal grant award: probability approximately 65-70%, contingent on federal budget priorities and competing applications. The probability-weighted answer: the base case of the OIA-to-OCCC segment being built is approximately 70-75%. The full corridor including a Brightline extension and downtown connection is approximately 35-45%. What makes this more certain than most transit projects at this stage is Universal's direct financial commitment. A private corporation with $6.5 billion invested in Epic Universe does not contribute $2M to a PDE study as a goodwill gesture. Universal's commitment signals that the company has internalized transit connectivity as a business necessity for Epic Universe operations.