ORLANDO INDUSTRIAL7.2%+0.4%
MIAMI MULTIFAMILY$3,420+1.2%
TAMPA RETAIL4.8%-0.2%
US-192 CORRIDOR$340/SF+4.1%
30Y FIXED MORTGAGE6.72%-0.08%
FED PROBABILITY (PAUSE)92%+2%
ORLANDO INDUSTRIAL7.2%+0.4%
MIAMI MULTIFAMILY$3,420+1.2%
TAMPA RETAIL4.8%-0.2%
US-192 CORRIDOR$340/SF+4.1%
30Y FIXED MORTGAGE6.72%-0.08%
FED PROBABILITY (PAUSE)92%+2%
ORLANDO INDUSTRIAL7.2%+0.4%
MIAMI MULTIFAMILY$3,420+1.2%
TAMPA RETAIL4.8%-0.2%
US-192 CORRIDOR$340/SF+4.1%
30Y FIXED MORTGAGE6.72%-0.08%
FED PROBABILITY (PAUSE)92%+2%

How do I analyze whether a strip center is priced for re-tenanting upside or terminal value?

The key analytical distinction is whether the going-in cap rate prices existing NOI at a fair stabilized multiple, or whether it prices vacant/below-market space at a value that assumes future re-tenanting that has not yet occurred. A strip center trading at 7.5% going-in cap with 15% vacancy and below-market in-place rents is priced for re-tenanting — the going-in cap reflects the current impaired NOI, and the thesis is that executing the re-tenanting plan compresses the yield to 5.5–6.0% at exit through NOI improvement. A strip center trading at 6.5% going-in cap with 3% vacancy and at-market rents is a stabilized asset priced at a normal market multiple. The re-tenanting play requires underwriting three things that the stabilized play does not: re-tenanting timeline (how long will spaces stay dark between tenants?), re-tenanting capex (what TI and downtime absorption is required?), and achievable re-tenanting rent (is the $30/SF F&B rent assumption supported by comparable transactions in the same corridor?).