What is causing Orlando's 17.6% office vacancy rate?

The 17.6% metro vacancy rate is the product of three overlapping forces that are structural rather than cyclical. First, the pandemic-era right-sizing of office footprints has proven permanent: the typical office-using employer in Orlando shed 20–30% of their space need between 2020 and 2022 and has not reconstituted that demand despite full staff returns. Hybrid work models have settled at 2–3 days in office for most knowledge workers, permanently reducing space-per-employee ratios from 200–250 SF in 2019 to 150–175 SF in 2026. Second, sublease supply — space that existing tenants are marketing while still on the lease hook — has added a shadow supply layer above direct vacancy that the headline figures understate. Many office buildings running 17% direct vacancy have an additional 5–8% in marketed sublease, producing an effective availability rate of 22–25%. Third, new office development — primarily the Wave offices and small Class A speculative deliveries — has continued to add supply at the Class A end even as Class B/C vacancy climbs, pushing the Class A vs B/C bifurcation wider. The 17.6% figure is not a recovery number; it is a cycle peak that will require 3–5 years of below-average supply and population-growth-driven demand to meaningfully reduce.