What is causing Orlando's 17.6% office vacancy rate?

The 17.6% metro vacancy rate is the product of three overlapping forces that are structural rather than cyclical. First, the pandemic-era right-sizing of office footprints has proven permanent: the typical office-using employer in Orlando shed 20-30% of their space need between 2020 and 2022 and has not reconstituted that demand despite full staff returns. Hybrid work models have settled at 2-3 days in office for most knowledge workers, permanently reducing space-per-employee ratios from 200-250 SF in 2019 to 150-175 SF in 2026. Second, sublease supply, space that existing tenants are marketing while still on the lease hook, has added a shadow supply layer above direct vacancy that the headline figures understate. Many office buildings running 17% direct vacancy have an additional 5-8% in marketed sublease, producing an effective availability rate of 22-25%. Third, new office development, primarily the Wave offices and small Class A speculative deliveries, has continued to add supply at the Class A end even as Class B/C vacancy climbs, pushing the Class A vs B/C bifurcation wider. The 17.6% figure is not a recovery number; it is a cycle peak that will require 3-5 years of below-average supply and population-growth-driven demand to meaningfully reduce.