How does Orlando hotel seasonality affect hotel investment underwriting?
Orlando hotel seasonality is the most misunderstood aspect of the investment underwriting, and the aspect that most commonly produces unpleasant post-acquisition surprises. The annual average occupancy number (often 70–75% for well-positioned I-Drive hotels) is an artifact of calendar averaging that conceals the full range of monthly performance. July on I-Drive can run 88–92% occupancy at ADR above the annual average by 15–20%. September on I-Drive runs 55–62% occupancy at ADR below the annual average by 10–15%. The September performance is not an investment problem. It is an operating reality that must be planned for in debt service coverage terms. A hotel with a September DSCR below 1.0× does not mean the hotel fails; it means the hotel's strong summer quarters more than compensate across the annual period. But lenders who see a sub-1.0 DSCR quarter during underwriting will require explanation, higher reserves, or both. The correct underwriting approach is quarter-by-quarter DSCR analysis, not annual average DSCR, which is what the Hotel NOI Calculator above models by building the monthly seasonality curve explicitly. The annual average DSCR is the output; the monthly curve is the input.