What is the demand case for the new hotel pipeline and will 35% more capacity dilute existing hotel NOI?

The 35% increase in Central Florida hotel capacity projected by 2027 will not uniformly dilute existing hotel NOI. The impact is highly corridor-specific and demand-driver-specific. The three Universal on-campus hotels (Stella Nova, Terra Luna, Helios Grand, 2,000 rooms delivered in 2025) are not competing with I-Drive hotels for the same guests; they are capturing Epic Universe-specific demand that did not exist before May 2025. The InterContinental 700-key (Q1 2026 groundbreaking) is positioned as upscale overflow from Epic-adjacent visitors who want proximity but not the on-campus rate premium. These projects are accretive. The Grand Hyatt Orlando (1,200-2,500 keys, phased) is the supply event that deserves scrutiny. It will directly compete for convention groups currently booking the Hyatt Regency and Hilton Orlando. The defensive renovation commitments ($75M each) by both incumbents suggest that sophisticated hotel operators see the Grand Hyatt as a manageable competitive threat, not an existential one. Outside the convention segment, limited-service and mid-scale I-Drive hotels are not competing with the Grand Hyatt at all. They serve a completely different guest profile at a completely different price point.