ORLANDO INDUSTRIAL7.2%+0.4%
MIAMI MULTIFAMILY$3,420+1.2%
TAMPA RETAIL4.8%-0.2%
US-192 CORRIDOR$340/SF+4.1%
30Y FIXED MORTGAGE6.72%-0.08%
FED PROBABILITY (PAUSE)92%+2%
ORLANDO INDUSTRIAL7.2%+0.4%
MIAMI MULTIFAMILY$3,420+1.2%
TAMPA RETAIL4.8%-0.2%
US-192 CORRIDOR$340/SF+4.1%
30Y FIXED MORTGAGE6.72%-0.08%
FED PROBABILITY (PAUSE)92%+2%
ORLANDO INDUSTRIAL7.2%+0.4%
MIAMI MULTIFAMILY$3,420+1.2%
TAMPA RETAIL4.8%-0.2%
US-192 CORRIDOR$340/SF+4.1%
30Y FIXED MORTGAGE6.72%-0.08%
FED PROBABILITY (PAUSE)92%+2%

What is the demand case for the new hotel pipeline and will 35% more capacity dilute existing hotel NOI?

The 35% increase in Central Florida hotel capacity projected by 2027 will not uniformly dilute existing hotel NOI. The impact is highly corridor-specific and demand-driver-specific. The three Universal on-campus hotels (Stella Nova, Terra Luna, Helios Grand, 2,000 rooms delivered in 2025) are not competing with I-Drive hotels for the same guests; they are capturing Epic Universe-specific demand that did not exist before May 2025. The InterContinental 700-key (Q1 2026 groundbreaking) is positioned as upscale overflow from Epic-adjacent visitors who want proximity but not the on-campus rate premium. These projects are accretive. The Grand Hyatt Orlando (1,200–2,500 keys, phased) is the supply event that deserves scrutiny. It will directly compete for convention groups currently booking the Hyatt Regency and Hilton Orlando. The defensive renovation commitments ($75M each) by both incumbents suggest that sophisticated hotel operators see the Grand Hyatt as a manageable competitive threat, not an existential one. Outside the convention segment, limited-service and mid-scale I-Drive hotels are not competing with the Grand Hyatt at all. They serve a completely different guest profile at a completely different price point.