ORLANDO INDUSTRIAL7.2%+0.4%
MIAMI MULTIFAMILY$3,420+1.2%
TAMPA RETAIL4.8%-0.2%
US-192 CORRIDOR$340/SF+4.1%
30Y FIXED MORTGAGE6.72%-0.08%
FED PROBABILITY (PAUSE)92%+2%
ORLANDO INDUSTRIAL7.2%+0.4%
MIAMI MULTIFAMILY$3,420+1.2%
TAMPA RETAIL4.8%-0.2%
US-192 CORRIDOR$340/SF+4.1%
30Y FIXED MORTGAGE6.72%-0.08%
FED PROBABILITY (PAUSE)92%+2%
ORLANDO INDUSTRIAL7.2%+0.4%
MIAMI MULTIFAMILY$3,420+1.2%
TAMPA RETAIL4.8%-0.2%
US-192 CORRIDOR$340/SF+4.1%
30Y FIXED MORTGAGE6.72%-0.08%
FED PROBABILITY (PAUSE)92%+2%
PROPRIETARY INTELLIGENCE · Q1 2026

The Florida CRE
Cap Rate Index

Corridor-level capitalization rate intelligence across 14 Central Florida submarkets and 5 asset classes. Sourced from verified transaction data and proprietary submarket intelligence.

Composite Index
6.47%▲ +18 bps YoY
Industrial6.12%
Medical6.75%
Office7.84%

Index Summary

Updates
Quarterly
Basis
Verified Closed
Corridors
14
Classes
5
Data Scope
Metro Orlando
Verification
Dual-Source

The Florida CRE Cap Rate Index is a market-level intelligence tool. It captures composite capitalization rate environments across primary Central Florida investment corridors.

PRIMARY INTELLIGENCE

Submarket Heat Grid

14 Corridors · Q1 2026 · Verified Data

Downtown / SoDo

Office / Mixed-Use
STABILIZING
Cap Rate
7.84%
▲ +41 bps YoY
Vacancy
12.4%
Avg Rent
$28.40/SF
Rent recovery underway as adaptive reuse and mixed-use conversion reshape the urban core. Creative office seeing strongest lease-up.
Urban Infill page · CoStar Q1 2026Full Page →

Urban Infill

Office / Creative
STABILIZING
Cap Rate
7.42%
▼ −18 bps YoY
Vacancy
8.2%
Avg Rent
$24.80/SF
Creative and adaptive office stabilizing as conventional office vacates. Net effective rents improving on strong lease-up of repositioned product.
Urban Infill page · CoStar Q1 2026Full Page →

Osceola / US-192

Mixed-Use / Hospitality
EMERGING
Cap Rate
7.25%
▲ +28 bps YoY
Pipeline
320K SF Planned
Absorption
185K SF YTD
Value-play corridor with tourism infrastructure and population-driven absorption. Highest yield spreads in metro Orlando.
Osceola page · Osceola County PAFull Page →

Live Local / Adaptive

Mixed-Use / Legislative
EMERGING
Cap Rate
7.10%
▼ −28 bps YoY
Pipeline
Florida's Live Local Act reshaping development economics for commercial-to-residential conversion across Orlando submarkets.
Live Local Act page · TLO Internal ResearchFull Page →

Lake Nona

Medical Office / Life Sciences
COMPRESSING
Cap Rate
6.75%
▼ −18 bps YoY
Pipeline
240K SF U/C
Avg Rent
$38.20/SF
Institutional capital following healthcare and life sciences cluster growth anchored by VA Hospital and USTA campus.
Lake Nona page · Orange County PAFull Page →

Medical Office

Medical Office
COMPRESSING
Cap Rate
6.75%
▼ −12 bps YoY
Vacancy
5.1%
Avg Rent
$32.40/SF
Healthcare system expansion driving sustained medical office demand. Minimal speculative construction limiting competitive supply.
Medical Office page · CoStar Q1 2026Full Page →

West Orange

Retail / Mixed-Use
STABLE
Cap Rate
6.55%
▼ −12 bps YoY
Vacancy
4.9%
Avg Rent
$32.50/SF
Residential growth corridor driving neighborhood retail absorption. Population density supporting sustained occupancy.
West Orange page · CoStar Q1 2026Full Page →

Apopka / NW Industrial

Industrial / Distribution
TIGHTENING
Cap Rate
6.48%
▼ −18 bps YoY
Vacancy
5.6%
Avg Rent
$7.90/SF
Affordable industrial alternative attracting last-mile and cold storage operators. Rent growth outpacing metro average.
Apopka page · CoStar Q1 2026Full Page →

Sand Lake / Dr. Phillips

Retail / F&B Corridor
COMPRESSING
Cap Rate
6.38%
▼ −15 bps YoY
Vacancy
3.8%
Avg Rent
$48.00/SF
Persistently low vacancy driven by tourism-adjacent retail and F&B demand. Limited new supply keeps rents elevated.
Retail page · FDOT traffic dataFull Page →

SR-528 / Airport

Industrial / Flex
COMPRESSING
Cap Rate
6.28%
▼ −20 bps YoY
Vacancy
4.8%
Avg Rent
$9.10/SF
Airport proximity driving flex and last-mile industrial demand. Cargo volume growth supporting sustained absorption.
SR-528 page · FDOT dataFull Page →

I-Drive / Tourist

Retail / Hospitality
COMPRESSING
Cap Rate
6.18%
▼ −22 bps YoY
Vacancy
3.2%
Avg Rent
$52.00/SF
Tourism volume supporting near-full occupancy along the I-Drive entertainment corridor. Experiential retail and F&B commanding premium rents.
I-Drive page · FDOT traffic dataFull Page →

I-4 Industrial

Industrial / Logistics
COMPRESSING
Cap Rate
6.12%
▼ −22 bps YoY
Vacancy
4.2%
Avg Rent
$8.75/SF
Constrained supply with logistics-driven demand expansion. Spec pipeline limited relative to absorption velocity.
Industrial Hub page · CoStar Q1 2026Full Page →

Small-Bay Industrial

Industrial / Small-Bay
COMPRESSING
Cap Rate
6.02%
▼ −31 bps YoY
Vacancy
2.8%
Avg Rent
$11.20/SF
Zero small-bay product under construction metro-wide. Effectively fully leased at sub-3% vacancy. Tightest supply condition in any Orlando CRE subtype.
Small-Bay page · CoStar Q1 2026Full Page →

Multifamily

Multifamily / Residential
STABLE
Cap Rate
5.42%
▲ +8 bps YoY
Vacancy
6.8%
Avg Rent
$1,840/mo
Multifamily cap rates stabilizing after compression cycle. New supply pipeline beginning to moderate rent growth pressure in outer ring submarkets.
Multifamily page · CoStar Q1 2026Full Page →
HISTORICAL TREND ANALYSIS

Cap Rate Movement

By Asset Class — Central Florida

Industrial
Office
Retail
Medical Office
Mixed-Use

What Moved This Quarter

Industrial compression deepened As small-bay vacancy hit 2.8% metro-wide with zero speculative pipeline. The I-4 Corridor and SR-528 Airport submarket both registered 20+ bps of quarterly compression.

Source: CoStar Q1 2026 · Small-Bay page

Office cap rates continued their upward drift With the Downtown Core / SoDo corridor reaching 7.84%, now 42 bps above Q1 2024 levels. However, creative office is absorbing at accelerating rates.

Source: Urban Infill page · CoStar Q1 2026

Medical office drew institutional bids Following the Lake Nona VA Hospital campus expansion. Cap rates compressed to 6.75% on limited product availability.

Source: Lake Nona page · Orange County PA

Tourism-adjacent retail held firm At sub-4% vacancy along both the I-Drive and Sand Lake corridors. Experiential F&B tenants continue to command premium rents above $48/SF NNN.

Source: Retail page · FDOT traffic data

Forward Indicators

Industrial supply remains constrained through 2026. The absence of meaningful spec pipeline in the I-4 Corridor suggest continued rent growth pressure and further cap rate compression.

Based on current pipeline data

Office bifurcation will likely accelerate. Expect Class A creative office in the urban core to continue tightening while commodity suburban office sees continued vacancy elevation.

Based on Live Local Act page analysis

The Osceola / US-192 yield spread is at a cyclical peak. At 78 bps above the metro mean, this corridor offers the most compelling risk-adjusted entry point for investors.

Based on Osceola page · Census data

Watch Lake Nona for institutional cap rate compression. As healthcare and life sciences capital continues to enter the corridor, pricing is likely to reflect institutional cost-of-capital.

Based on current pipeline and absorption data
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT

Orlando in the Florida Landscape

Benchmarking Q1 2026 cap rate composites across Florida's primary investment metros.

Why Orlando Outperforms

Orlando's composite 6.47% cap rate reflects a market that still prices at a meaningful premium to South Florida's compressed coastal metros while delivering superior absorption velocity.

The Miami Premium

Miami's 5.84% composite reflects institutional cost-of-capital pricing driven by international capital flows and constrained geography that limits competitive supply.

Where Capital Is Moving

South Florida continue to see compression, but velocity has moderated. Orlando occupies the strategic middle — priced attractively enough for yield, growing fast enough for appreciation.

OPPORTUNITY SIGNALS

Strategy Directives

Supply Constrained

I-4 Industrial Hub

Industrial / Logistics

Constrained supply with logistics-driven demand expansion. Spec pipeline limited relative to absorption velocity.

Institutional Alpha

Lake Nona / Medical City

Medical / Life Sciences

Institutional capital following healthcare cluster growth. Lake Nona pricing increasingly decoupling from local comps.

Yield Spread Maxima

Osceola / US-192

Mixed-Use / Value-Add

Osceola yield spreads at cyclical peak. Population growth backing value-add retail and hospitality repositioning.

Supply Realignment

Downtown / SoDo

Creative Office

Live Local Act conversions removing commodity office inventory, tightening effectively supply for creative urban product.

METHODOLOGY

Proprietary
Intelligence Basis

Cap rate data is sourced through a multi-channel collection process. Primary sources include closed transaction records from CoStar Analytics, cross-referenced against public records from County Property Appraisers and TLO internal research.
Individual transaction cap rates are aggregated into corridor-level composites using an asset-weighted averaging methodology. Outlier transactions are flagged and reviewed for market consistency.
The index follows a quarterly publication cycle aligned with standard CRE reporting periods. Data freeze dates occur on the 15th day following the end of each quarter.
This index is a market-level intelligence tool. It is not a substitute for individual asset appraisal or investment analysis. Cap rates represent composite market observations.

Verified Sources

CoStar Analytics
Transaction data, listing data, vacancy rates. Accessed via professional subscription.
Orange County Property Appraiser
Public transaction records and assessment history. Used for transaction verification.
TLO Internal Research
14 published submarket intelligence pages covering primary Central Florida corridors.
FDOT Traffic Data
Vehicle counts for retail and hospitality corridors. Used for demand signaling.

The List Orlando does not manufacture cap rate data. Every metric is sourced from a verifiable public or professional data source and cross-referenced against independent inputs.